Amazon just hit its highest level ever.
That won’t be the last record it breaks this year, says one technician.
“Amazon is just a great example of momentum in markets,” Ari Wald, head of technical analysis at Oppenheimer, told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Thursday. “Stocks with high risk-adjusted returns over the prior year are usually the stocks that continue to be leadership over the coming year and Amazon scores high in our momentum work.”
Amazon has an annualized total return of 80 percent, far higher than the S&P 500’s total return of 16 percent.
Moves in the bond market should also support gains in Amazon’s stock, said Wald.
“As long as we have a continued flattening in this yield curve, it should continue to support growth investing and I think Amazon has that tail wind, too,” he said.
The 10-year/2-year yield spread flattened to 26 basis points on Thursday, its narrowest level since August 2007. Growth stocks typically outperform value stocks in slower-growth environments — an inverse yield curve, where shorter-term bonds yield more than long-term bonds, often signals a coming recession.
From macro moves to the fundamentals, Strategic Wealth Partners President Mark Tepper expects sales growth giving Amazon’s shares a big boost.
“Prime is definitely the biggest thing that’s driving revenues,” Tepper told “Trading Nation” on Thursday. “Prime Day is right around the corner … and it’s a day for Amazon that’s actually bigger than Black Friday and Cyber Monday, believe it or not.”
Amazon will kick off its annual sales day Monday. Sales grew by more than 60 percent year over year during its 2017 event.
Tepper does worry about one thing tied to Amazon’s fundamentals, though.
“I’m wondering at this point about Prime saturation in the U.S. market,” he said. “It seems that Amazon has very high penetration rates in the U.S. so I’m concerned about future growth.”
Amazon reported in April that it had more than 100 million Prime members. It was the first time the company had divulged subscriber numbers.