Theresa May says no Brexit more likely than no deal

Prime Minister Theresa May is making a last-ditch attempt to persuade MPs to back her Brexit deal as Tuesday’s key Commons vote looms closer.

She will use a speech on Monday to warn that trust in politicians will suffer « catastrophic harm » if the referendum result is not implemented.

Parliament is more likely to block Brexit than let the UK leave with no deal, she will warn.

Labour has vowed to table a vote of no confidence if Mrs May loses.

Its leader Jeremy Corbyn said Labour would vote against the deal and would start moves to trigger a general election if it is voted down.

He told the BBC’s Andrew Marr show: « We will table a motion of no confidence in the government at a time of our choosing, but it’s going to be soon, don’t worry about it. »

  • What could happen next?
  • Can Parliament stop a no-deal Brexit?

Mrs May’s speech comes amid reports MPs plan to take control of Brexit if her deal is defeated.

About 100 Conservative MPs, and the Democratic Unionist Party’s 10 MPs, are currently expected to join Labour and the other opposition parties in voting against the deal.

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Speaking to factory workers, Mrs May will say on Monday: « As we have seen over the last few weeks, there are some in Westminster who would wish to delay or even stop Brexit and who will use every device available to them to do so. »

She is to add that she now believes MPs blocking Brexit is more likely than a no-deal scenario.


Mrs May will say: « I ask MPs to consider the consequences of their actions on the faith of the British people in our democracy.

« Imagine if an anti-devolution House of Commons had said to the people of Scotland or Wales that despite voting in favour of a devolved legislature, Parliament knew better and would overrule them. Or else force them to vote again.

« What if we found ourselves in a situation where Parliament tried to take the UK out of the EU in opposition to a remain vote?

« People’s faith in the democratic process and their politicians would suffer catastrophic harm. We all have a duty to implement the result of the referendum. »

She is to give the example of the Welsh devolution referendum in 1997, when people voted by a margin of 0.3% to create the Welsh Assembly, arguing: « That result was accepted by both sides and the popular legitimacy of that institution has never seriously been questioned.

« Parliament understood this fact when it voted overwhelmingly to trigger Article 50. And both major parties did so too when they stood on election manifestos in 2017 that pledged to honour the result of the referendum. »

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What happens next?

Here is what is likely to happen:

  • Monday – Day four of MPs’ Brexit debate
  • Tuesday – Day five of debate followed by « meaningful vote » on the PM’s deal. MPs will also get to vote on amendments that could reshape the deal. If the deal is rejected Theresa May will get three working days to come up with a « plan B »
  • Wednesday – Mrs May is likely to head to Brussels to try to get further concessions from the EU
  • Monday 21 January – Expected Commons vote on « Plan B »

The UK will leave the EU on Friday 29 March unless MPs vote to delay or cancel Brexit.

What are others saying?

Liberal Democrat leader Vince Cable said: « The increasingly desperate language from the prime minister more than suggests a great deal of panic.

« But she cannot be allowed to pull the wool over the public’s eyes. A chaotic no-deal Brexit is a choice and it is in the gift of the government to prevent it. »

He argued that best way forward was to have another referendum, including the option to remain in the EU.

Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay told the BBC’s Andrew Marr show there was greater « uncertainty » after Commons Speaker John Bercow’s decision last week to allow MPs to change the parliamentary timetable.

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He warned « those on the Brexiteer side seeking ideological purity » by voting down Mrs May’s deal they risked « leaving the door ajar to ways that increase the risk to Brexit ».

« There are lots of different plans being put forward by Members of Parliament that don’t respect the result (of the referendum) or risk no deal, » he added.

Meanwhile Conservative former minister Nick Boles accused the government of a « gross dereliction of responsibility » for not approaching opposition parties sooner to try to reach a compromise on Brexit.

The Grantham and Stamford MP told BBC Radio 4’s The Westminster Hour: « I think that the penny is dropping and there are certainly lots of voices in the cabinet who have been pushing the prime minister in recent meetings very hard to start those cross-party conversations.

« And my hope is that finally – after the vote is lost on Tuesday night – finally the prime minister will realise this is what has to be done. »

What about reports of MPs planning to take over Brexit?

The UK will leave the EU on 29 March unless there is a new act of Parliament preventing that.

Because the government controls the timetable for Commons business, it was assumed that this would not be possible.

But a group of MPs, including former Tory ministers, are reported by the Sunday Times to be working on a way to allow non-government members to take control of the timetable and bring forward legislation making it illegal to leave the EU without a deal, if Mrs May loses Tuesday’s vote.

Downing Street has said it is « extremely concerned » about the reported plot, which it says could potentially overturn centuries of Parliamentary precedent.

A leading Conservative Remainer, who declined to be named, has told the BBC he is not aware of any plans to change Commons rules. He dismissed newspaper stories about backbench plots as « fantasy », designed to frighten Brexiteer Tories into backing Mrs May’s deal.

But the SNP’s leader at Westminster, Ian Blackford, said MPs must now take control of the Brexit process from the government to prevent a no-deal scenario.

He told the BBC’s Sunday Politics programme: « The prime minister’s got to stop threatening Parliament and indeed, threatening the whole of the United Kingdom, that it’s a choice between her deal and no deal – that’s not the case. »

Source: BBC

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